I have now had the gift of a modest but useful database of individual innings, which covers the period 2000 - 2008 inclusive. I have posted an update at the page
on Tom Tango's site, where the ongoing "discussion" is taking place. But the short form is this (I wish
I knew how to get monospace in these posts):
BR Average Error: 0.232548157 -------
TOP Average Error: 0.241989297 +0.00944114
XR Average Error: 0.261624709 +0.02907655
Besides the point that .009 of a run per inning is not exactly a killer difference is my belief, noted on Tango's page, that over a fuller period (ideally the 55 years I used for team-season-level evaluation), the BaseRuns advantage, trivial as it is, would shrink and possibly even reverse, because the optimized coefficient in BR looks more sensitive to the run environment than do the coefficients for TOP. Maybe someone will send me a larger DB.
This is not the first time I have had less than civil responses over there (and recall, I didn't make any initial post there: someone over there brought the matter up, in this case following up an article I had done for The Baseball Analysts). I had an even worse go-round over the Steroids issue and my associated site
. Some of the suggestions put forth to handwave away the rock-solid, indubitable fact that player power has not
gone up during the so-called "steroid era" would make a cat laugh (like, the baseball was being gradually de-juiced on a graduated annual basis to hide the effects--oh, me, oh my).
It is always hard to make nice judgements when one's own ego is involved, but I get the very definite feeling over there of it being a sort of "Tubby's Klub House", with "outsiders"--or their ideas--not welcome: if it wasn't invented here, it is The Work of Satan. And, apparently, BaseRuns, because Tango likes it and has praised it, is the fair-haired, blue-eyed princess, and anyone suggesting that something else is as good or better is Ming the Merciless come to ravage the Princess. Just a feeling I get . . . .
(If you think otherwise, don't stand on ceremony to not say so. I have what Nero Wolfe refers to as "a robust ego".)